Based on current feedback, production is likely to resume gradually from late February through mid-March, with many plants targeting full operations by around March 15. Restart timelines remain flexible and could move earlier or later depending on order volume and labor availability once workers return.

Turning to the whitefish market for Atlantic cod, pollock, Pacific cod, haddock, and raw material prices continue to trend higher, reflecting tighter availability and ongoing supply concerns. The supply crisis in Cod has pushed Norwegian Atlantic cod toward the $11,000 per metric tonne level, while U.S. Pacific cod is moving above $8,500 for longline, although offers remain limited. Pressure on pollock supply, combined with low inventories in China, continues to keep H&G pollock above $1,700, while Norwegian haddock has climbed to around $7,800.



High Atlantic cod prices are pushing buyers toward haddock and Pacific cod, keeping those markets well above their five-year averages. This substitution is unlikely to result in any meaningful softening in Atlantic cod pricing or demand as globally, Atlantic cod supply in 2026 is forecasted to be 80,000 MT lower than 2025 and 170,000 MT below 2024 levels.

With finished-goods prices already sitting at elevated levels, there are signs that buyers may struggle to absorb further increases which could create some price resistance after the Chinese New Year holiday. Because of this uncertainty, many Chinese processors are currently reluctant to quote post-CNY pricing.

Looking ahead to post Chinese New Year, the raw material outlook remains unclear. All major wild caught whitefish species for the North American Market are forecasted to see less landings - except for Haddock. Although there are open questions about whether the market can continue to sustain these high levels - less supply would say otherwise.



Our recommendation is for buyers to proactively secure near-term coverage, particularly for Atlantic cod, pollock, and Pacific cod, as supply risks remain elevated and a meaningful post Chinese New Year price correction appears unlikely given tightening global availability. At the same time, buyers should remain selective and flexible, as elevated finished-goods prices and limited post-holiday price visibility suggest a cautious, staged purchasing approach will be most effective.

We will continue to monitor plant restarts, raw material availability, and buyer response as China comes back online after the Lunar New Year.

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