Norwegian salmon markets are entering 2026 under clear pressure, shaped by a combination of rising supply, softer pricing, and a noticeable rebalancing of global trade flows. The key theme right now is that volumes are climbing quickly, but pricing strength is not keeping up, forcing exporters to redirect product toward markets that can absorb more supply.

Norway exported just over 112,000 tonnes of salmon in January, an increase of 20% year over year, reflecting strong biological performance and improved farming conditions that supported higher production. That extra volume is clearly reaching global markets, but the value side is telling a different story. Despite the strong shipment growth, total export value slipped slightly, reinforcing that the market is being driven primarily by lower prices, rather than by any major collapse in demand. In practical terms, supply growth is putting steady downward pressure on pricing, especially for whole fish, commodity grades, and salmon destined for further processing.



At the same time, where that volume is going has become just as important as how much is moving overall. The United States has clearly lost ground as a destination market. Export value to the U.S. fell 37%, driven by a combination of tariffs, a weaker U.S. dollar, and intensifying competition from countries not facing the same cost burden. Fresh fillet shipments dropped 37%, frozen fillets declined 22%, and the share of salmon exported as processed products fell from 26% to 20%. This confirms that Norway is shipping fewer value-added products into the U.S., and instead keeping more product closer to home, increasing the volume available to European processors.

As a result, Europe has strengthened its position significantly, now accounting for roughly two-thirds of Norway’s total seafood exports, up from last year. Within Europe, Poland continues to stand out as the key hub. Salmon volumes into Poland increased by more than 70%, reinforcing Poland’s role as the primary processing and redistribution gateway for Norwegian salmon into the EU. What’s also notable is that Poland is no longer functioning only as a processing corridor. Domestic salmon consumption is rising, which is helping the market absorb additional volumes and making Poland an even more important stabilizing point within the European trade flow.

Looking toward Asia, China continues to play a stabilizing role for Norwegian exporters. Ahead of Lunar New Year, salmon exports to China surged 86% in volume, and for the first time ever, monthly export value exceeded one billion Norwegian kroner. Lower pricing has supported stronger competitiveness and allowed Norway to gain market share during a peak seasonal demand period. That demand strength has been important, because it is helping offset part of the weakness developing in the U.S. market and giving exporters an alternative outlet for volume.

For European buyers, this remains a clearly buyer-friendly environment. Strong Norwegian supply, weaker U.S. demand, and reduced processed export volumes mean that Europe is receiving more raw material, improving overall availability. Buyers should continue to see better negotiating leverage, especially for whole fish and processing formats. For European processors, near-term supply access looks favorable, supporting steady production planning, although currency movements - particularly a stronger Norwegian krone - could act as a limiting factor on how far prices can realistically fall.



Our recommendation is to lean into this buyer-friendly window by securing favorable long-term contracts for whole fish, targeting Poland’s processing capacity and China’s growing demand to offset the volatility and tariff-driven effects seen in the U.S. market.

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