Japan — once the dominant producer — has seen harvests fall from 134,599 MT in 2015 to just 15,000 MT in 2025, a decline of nearly 90% from peak levels and roughly 75% below its 10-year average of 74,299 MT. In contrast, Russia expanded significantly through the late 2010s, peaking at 143,679 MT in 2015 and landing 60,138 MT in 2025, continuing to anchor Asian supply despite moderating from historic highs.

Alaska presents a more nuanced case. Statewide chum harvest rebounded from a severe trough of 28,087 MT in 2020 to 59,339 MT in 2025, returning near its 10-year average of 58,739 MT. However, this reflects normalization rather than structural expansion and masks continued weakness in Western Alaska wild stocks. Overall, the center of gravity for global chum production remains tilted toward higher-latitude western Pacific regions.



Total North Pacific salmon biomass remains historically high, driven largely by strong pink salmon cycles. Elevated pink abundance has intensified competition in shared feeding grounds, contributing to declining average chum size — from 7.24 lbs in 2015 to 6.49 lbs in 2025 — and increased return volatility despite overall high ocean salmon numbers.

The global supply mix has shifted accordingly. Japanese hatchery programs have contracted sharply, while Russian-origin production has gained relative share. In 2025, Russia accounts for roughly 45% of total reported chum harvest (60,138 MT of 134,477 MT) among major producing regions, reinforcing its growing influence in price formation. Alaska now functions as a cyclical, climate-sensitive balancing producer rather than a structural growth engine.

For seafood buyers, Alaska’s rebound should be viewed as recovery from an extreme low — not a new production ceiling. Smaller fish are compressing roe and fillet yields, pink salmon cycles materially influence chum performance, and regional shortfalls (notably Japan and Western Alaska) continue to increase volatility.

Overall, chum salmon is not collapsing — it is rebalancing under ocean warming, competitive pressure, and regional divergence. The industry has shifted from a Japan-led production model toward a more northwestern Pacific–weighted and climate-sensitive supply structure, demanding greater risk management and planning for volatility across the global supply chain.



Our recommendation is to start planning your salmon requirements now, as the summer season will arrive quickly. With this being an even-numbered year, total wild salmon harvest is expected to be lower than in odd-numbered years, which could tighten availability and impact pricing. Chum salmon however, do not follow the same pronounced even/odd cycle pattern and tend to exhibit more year-to-year stability relative to pink salmon.

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