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3-Minute Market Insight

EP 783 | AIRED 03/23/2026

China Update: Tightening Supply Signals Price Pressure Across Cod, Pollock, and Salmon

March 23, 2026 - China’s seafood processing sector is gradually ramping up post Chinese New Year, with tightening supply in key species beginning to outweigh the current lull in processor purchasing.

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Pacific cod remains one of the strongest segments, with raw material prices now rising to $8,500–$8,600/MT for Russian longline fish and $9,000–$9,100/MT for U.S. supply. Finished loin pricing has edged higher to around $6.50–$6.60/lb FOB China. By-products are notably tight, with migas now exceeding $10,000/MT, reflecting strong raw material utilization and limited availability.

Atlantic cod continues to show a weaker tone, despite elevated raw material prices at $10,000+/MT for Russian origin and $11,000+/MT for Norwegian supply. Chinese processors report sufficient inventory and slow post-holiday buying, particularly for smaller sizes, with Greenland cod in some cases heard below $7,800/MT. Production activity has yet to fully normalize following the holiday period.

China Raw Materials Seafood Price Matrix - March 2026

The haddock market mirrors Atlantic cod, with Norwegian raw material priced at $8,200–$8,400/MT and Russian supply at $7,200–$7,400/MT. However, near-term demand remains limited as factories continue to rely on existing inventories, leaving market direction uncertain until processing activity resumes more fully.

Pollock is in a clear global upcycle, with raw material prices strengthening to $1,920–$1,950/MT CFR China for Russian supply, with some offers above $2,000/MT. U.S. raw material remains largely uncompetitive at $2,700+/MT. China has become a key trade hub amid strong global demand and tightening inventories, leaving processors as one of the last major sources of supply. Finished fillet prices have increased slightly to around $1.95/lb FOB China, while migas has surged to above $4,700/MT, reflecting tightening raw material availability and rising reprocessing costs.

In the salmon segment, supply constraints continue to support pricing. Pink salmon raw material is now trading at $5,400–$5,500/MT, with no U.S. supply available in the market. Processors report limited remaining inventory and are already calculating replacement costs closer to $5,600/MT while awaiting the 2026 harvest.

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Chum salmon shows similar dynamics, with U.S. raw material last reported around $6,000/MT prior to Chinese New Year. Good-quality fish has largely been utilized, and sourcing suitable raw material is becoming increasingly difficult, keeping the market firm.

Meanwhile, Pacific halibut remains extremely tight, with virtually no fresh raw material offers currently available. The last market indication was around $15.50/kg, and pricing remains entirely dependent on supply availability. The new Pacific halibut season is expected to commence on March 26.

Post-CNY Reveals Tightening Supply across Cod, Pollock, and Salmon Markets

Our recommendation for buyers is to secure coverage early—particularly for pollock, Pacific cod, and salmon—as tightening global supply and China’s central role in processing are likely to drive further price firming once post-CNY demand fully returns.

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