Tilapia supply remains abundant globally, led by China, where production continues to outpace demand. This imbalance has pushed farm-gate prices to multi-year lows, reflecting persistent oversupply and weak processor demand - however, the issue is not just volume - it’s product mismatch.

U.S. markets are on frozen fillets and value-added formats, with frozen fillet imports rising sharply, while whole fish demand declines. Overall U.S. imports increased in volume, but only marginally in value, highlighting continued downward pressure on pricing.



At the same time, Vietnam is gaining traction as an alternative supplier, particularly in higher-value segments, while Brazil faces tight domestic supply and firm pricing, limiting its export growth.

Tilapia remains widely available, but oversupply at origin and evolving product preferences are keeping prices under pressure, especially for whole fish.

In contrast, pangasius is showing a more balanced supply picture. Global production is forecast to exceed 4 million tonnes in 2026, but growth remains modest due to higher farming costs, disease challenges, and cautious restocking. This has prevented the kind of oversupply seen in tilapia.

On the demand side, pangasius continues to benefit from its position as a competitive whitefish alternative: Strong growth across Southeast Asia, CPTPP markets, and Brazil; Increasing penetration in Europe, where supply gaps in cod and haddock are supporting substitution; Export value rising faster than volume, indicating improving product mix and stability.

While the United States and China have softened slightly, emerging markets are driving momentum, creating a more diversified and resilient demand base.

Pangasius is in a more stable position, with controlled supply and expanding global demand supporting market balance.



Current tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to directly disrupt tilapia or pangasius supply to North America or Europe, as shipments primarily move via Pacific and Asia–Europe routes that bypass the region.

However, rising oil prices, potential logistics disruptions, and shifting Middle East demand may increase freight costs and create indirect pressure on margins.

Our recommendation is to take advantage of abundant tilapia supply and weak pricing by securing competitive positions, particularly in fillet formats, while leveraging pangasius as a stable, strategic whitefish alternative amid tightening global supply. Buyers should remain mindful that the primary risk is not supply disruption, but rising logistics and energy costs that could pressure margins.

--- If you’re not already, be sure to subscribe to our 3-Minute Market Insight for seafood updates and insights delivered right to your inbox.