Production expanded significantly last year, with global output reaching approximately 2.29 million tonnes through the first nine months of 2025, up 13% year-on-year. Norway drove much of this growth, producing roughly 1.24 million tonnes (+18%), while Chile added 573,500 tonnes (+10.4%). This surge pushed total global supply close to 3 million tonnes for the year, creating a temporary oversupply that weighed on prices entering 2026.

That pressure was evident in early January, when salmon prices dropped nearly 9% from late-2025 highs as post-holiday demand softened and supply normalized. Whole fish bore the brunt of the decline, while fillet markets held relatively steady, supported by consistent retail and foodservice demand.

Now, that supply-driven softness is beginning to fade. Growth in 2026 is expected to slow to low single digits, as biological constraints and regulatory limits cap further expansion. In Norway, sea lice pressure and biomass restrictions continue to limit production increases, while Canada remains structurally constrained following ongoing regulatory changes. The result is a market that is no longer expanding meaningfully, tightening the supply outlook as the year progresses.



At the same time, demand is shifting—and strengthening. China has emerged as the dominant force in global salmon trade, with imports rising more than 46% year-on-year to over 100,000 tonnes. Across Asia-Pacific, demand for fresh whole fish and fillets continues to grow, driven by foodservice recovery and strong retail consumption. This pull from Asia is increasingly redirecting supply away from Western markets and establishing a higher global price floor.

Trade policy is reinforcing this shift. U.S. tariffs—15% on Norwegian salmon and 10% on Chilean product—are reshaping trade flows and reducing the competitiveness of key suppliers in that market. Exporters are responding by diversifying into Asia and other growth regions, accelerating the rebalancing of global supply.

Buyers are becoming more tactical as cost volatility and trade uncertainty drive shorter contracts, tighter inventories, and a shift toward contract-based purchasing over spot buying.

The market is moving from excess supply toward normalization, with near-term inventory capping prices but slower production growth, strong Asian demand, and biological constraints expected to support firmer pricing into mid-2026.



Our Recommendation is to take advantage of current pricing where possible and secure coverage ahead of expected tightening, as early-2026 softness reflects a temporary imbalance and the market is trending toward increased volatility and upward price pressure.

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