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3-Minute Market Insight

EP 794 | AIRED 05/25/2026

China: Tight Supply and Rising Replacement Costs Keep Whitefish Markets Elevated

May 25, 2026 - China’s seafood market remains firm, with tight raw material supply, elevated replacement costs, quota pressure, constrained processing capacity, and limited substitution options continuing to support historically high groundfish and salmon pricing.

SINBAD
Pacific cod remains one of China’s tightest whitefish markets, with Russian longline raw material in the high-$8,000s/MT and U.S. product still above $9,000/MT. Processors describe the market as stable but short, with firm loin pricing and extremely limited Migas availability due to ongoing raw material shortages. Pollock is increasingly viewed as a stabilizer rather than a low-cost substitute, as elevated cod pricing continues supporting the broader whitefish complex.

Atlantic cod pricing has stabilized, though the market tone remains softer than Pacific cod. Russian and Norwegian raw material continues trading above $10,000/MT, but buyers are becoming less selective on sizing and purchasing more opportunistically based on price. Chinese inventories, particularly for smaller fish, remain relatively comfortable.

China Update

Haddock remains one of the weaker categories in the whitefish complex. Prices are stable, but processors report sufficient inventory coverage and limited interest in additional purchases, keeping market activity subdued.

Pollock pricing remains historically high despite a modest correction from recent peaks. Russian raw material continues trading above $2,000/MT, with supply still tight. Most Chinese buyers view the recent pullback as a short-term adjustment rather than a fundamental shift. Fillet pricing remains elevated, while Migas continues strengthening on raw material shortages.

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Pacific halibut remains extremely tight with virtually no active raw material offers in the market. The last reported Russian indication was around $15.50/kg, and pricing continues to be driven almost entirely by supply availability.

Pink salmon markets remain exceptionally tight, with Russian raw material holding in the mid-$5,000s/MT and limited, elevated U.S. new-season supply. Processors continue reporting rising replacement costs and upward pressure from Russian suppliers, while lower Russian Far East 2026 harvest forecasts are increasing concern around pink, chum, and frozen raw material availability later in the year.

Chum salmon remains firm and relatively stable, with limited availability of quality fish continuing to support the market. Processors report ongoing difficulty sourcing suitable raw material as buyers wait for new-season supply.

China Update

Our recommendation is that buyers maintain disciplined forward coverage on Pacific cod, pollock, halibut, and salmon. China’s seafood market continues operating in a supply-constrained environment, particularly across Pacific cod, pollock, halibut, and salmon categories. While Atlantic cod and haddock currently show softer demand conditions, most major species remain structurally supported by elevated replacement costs and limited raw material availability, keeping the near-term market outlook firm overall.

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