Groundfish markets remain firm across Europe, driven largely by higher fuel costs and tighter supply. Cod prices continue to climb following a disappointing Norwegian fishing season, with many buyers reporting demand destruction as consumers trade down to lower-cost proteins. Hake markets are also moving higher, particularly in France, where wholesale prices increased roughly one euro per kilogram during May as fuel surcharges worked their way through the supply chain. For buyers, the outlook remains bullish. Groundfish is one of the categories most exposed to rising harvesting costs, and there is little indication of meaningful relief in the near term.

The salmon market is showing signs of stabilization after several months of price weakness. Norwegian exports rose slightly in volume during April, but export values declined due to currency effects, logistics challenges, and weaker shipments to the United States. The biggest story remains China. Norwegian salmon exports to China increased sharply, with volumes up nearly 30 percent year-over-year. At the same time, exports to the United States fell significantly due to tariff uncertainty and a weaker U.S. dollar. Spot prices have rebounded from their recent lows, suggesting the market may have established a seasonal floor. Buyers should expect a firmer salmon market heading into summer, particularly if Chinese demand remains strong.



Shrimp remains one of the most buyer-friendly categories in the seafood market today. European shrimp imports fell seven percent during the first quarter, while import values dropped fifteen percent. Inventories remain elevated throughout Southern Europe, and global production continues to outpace demand. Ecuadorian producers are increasingly focused on Asia, but overall supply remains abundant. As a result, pricing pressure continues across most vannamei categories. Unless production slows materially, shrimp should remain one of the strongest value opportunities available through the second half of the year.

Pangasius continues to be one of the strongest value opportunities in the whitefish market. Vietnamese exporters are benefiting from competitive pricing and stable production, while buyers facing higher cod and hake prices continue to look for affordable alternatives. With supply remaining ample and pricing relatively stable, pangasius remains an attractive option for cost-conscious seafood programs.

The pelagic sector presents a very different picture. Atlantic mackerel prices have reached levels not seen in recent years following significant quota reductions in both 2025 and 2026. Processors and consumers are increasingly turning toward Pacific chub mackerel and Chilean jack mackerel as lower-cost alternatives. Meanwhile, herring demand remains robust, particularly for smoked, canned, and marinated products. Value-added pelagic products continue to outperform the broader seafood category despite softer consumer spending. For buyers, Atlantic mackerel remains a supply-driven market with limited downside risk.

Tuna markets have become increasingly volatile. In Bangkok, skipjack prices dropped sharply during May, falling from approximately $2,000 per metric ton to $1,850. At the same time, prices in Ecuador moved higher as Eastern Pacific catches declined. Regional supply conditions are becoming more important than broader global trends. Eastern Pacific tuna landings were down seven percent during the first quarter, primarily due to lower skipjack and bigeye production. Yellowfin catches, however, remain relatively healthy. For now, buyers should expect continued volatility and closely monitor catch rates from the Eastern Pacific as we move deeper into the summer season.

In cephalopods, the story remains one of two very different markets. Octopus continues to experience severe supply constraints. Morocco's fishing season has closed until July, while Mauritania has implemented a biological rest period aimed at stock recovery. These measures are keeping global octopus supplies tight and prices elevated. Squid, however, is moving in the opposite direction. Argentine Illex catches surged more than seventy percent during the first quarter, while Peruvian giant squid production is also expanding. Increased availability is creating downward pressure on prices and making squid one of the best value propositions in the seafood market today.



The key theme remains a widening divide between aquaculture and wild-capture species. Our recommendation is that buyers take advantage of the opportunities where supply is working in their favor. Shrimp, squid, and alternative pelagic species continue to offer some of the best value in the market today. On the other hand, if cod, Atlantic mackerel, or octopus are important parts of your program, it may be worth extending coverage sooner rather than later, as tight supply and rising harvesting costs are likely to keep those markets firm through the summer.

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