Wild Pacific Salmon
Wild Pacific salmon remains one of the tightest protein markets entering the second half of the year, although supply conditions are beginning to improve selectively.

Alaska has harvested over 30 million salmon (60,000 metric tons) through July 17, representing around just 24% of its preseason forecast. Bristol Bay continues to drive the season, with over 21 million sockeye landed as commercial fishing time expands and escapement remains comfortably above management targets. These factors are steadily improving frozen sockeye raw material availability.

Outside Bristol Bay, however, the outlook remains considerably tighter. Chum fisheries in Western Alaska have improved, but Yukon River chum, Chinook, and coho remain weak under continued conservation measures. Meanwhile, Russia's even-year salmon season has reached over 20,000 metric tons, reinforcing expectations for one of the lightest global wild salmon supply years in decades.

For buyers, the market remains highly species specific. Sockeye availability continues improving, but Chinook, chum, and potentially pink salmon remain the highest-risk categories heading into the second half of the season.



Whitefish
Global whitefish production continues strengthening, but stronger harvests have yet to produce meaningful price relief.

Russia's national seafood harvest has surpassed 2.56 million metric tons, including 1.325 million MT of pollock, 78,100 MT of Pacific cod, 94,500 MT of Atlantic cod, 45,200 MT of haddock, and 38,800 MT of flounder. Norway has also landed more than 107,401 MT of Atlantic cod and 46,428 MT of haddock, confirming healthy production across the North Atlantic.

Despite these larger catches, replacement costs remain historically high. Reduced quotas, elevated raw material costs, disciplined inventories, and geopolitical trade restrictions continue supporting prices across most premium whitefish categories.

Pollock remains the healthiest supplied premium whitefish and continues offering one of the strongest value opportunities in today's market. Pacific cod and Atlantic cod remain structurally tight despite improving catches, while haddock offers the healthiest Atlantic groundfish supply, although its traditional value advantage over cod has narrowed considerably. Flounder continues to stand out as one of the best premium whitefish alternatives, with balanced supply and significantly less price inflation than cod or halibut.

Pacific and Atlantic Halibut
The Pacific and Atlantic halibut markets continue moving in opposite directions.

Pacific halibut remains constrained by a 2026 quota of 29.33 million pounds, nearly 30% below 2022 levels, with only 36% of the commercial harvest landed by mid-July. While fishing activity will continue through the summer, total supply remains capped by historically low quotas rather than fishing effort.

Atlantic halibut tells a much different story. Canada's Atlantic halibut TAC has increased to a record 8,532 metric tons (18.8 million pounds), continuing a multi-year trend of expanding supply. Combined with stable Norwegian production, Atlantic halibut is becoming an increasingly attractive premium whitefish alternative for buyers looking to diversify away from constrained Pacific supply.

Other Seafood Markets
Beyond the major species, several secondary markets continue offering opportunities.

Warm-water shrimp remains the best value opportunity across the seafood complex as abundant global production continues supporting competitive pricing. Coldwater shrimp, lobster tails, and tilapia remain comparatively firm due to tighter supply conditions. Snow crab continues moving toward a more balanced market as Canadian production improves, while Peruvian jumbo squid remains attractively priced. Argentine illex squid continues trading at firmer levels, and skipjack tuna is beginning to show early signs of market recovery.

Q3 2026 Buyer Outlook
The defining characteristic of the second half of 2026 is that improving harvests are not translating into lower prices. Wild salmon remains a species-specific market where sockeye availability is improving, but Chinook, chum, and potentially pink salmon continue carrying elevated supply risk. At the same time, larger whitefish harvests across Russia and Norway continue failing to offset the structural supply constraints supporting Pacific cod, Atlantic cod, pollock, haddock, and Pacific halibut.

For seafood buyers, procurement decisions should remain focused on long-term supply fundamentals rather than short-term harvest reports. Improving catches are helping stabilize availability, but they have not materially changed replacement costs or market direction.



Our Recommendation
Continue buying salmon by species rather than as a single category, secure commitments early for higher-risk items such as Chinook salmon, Pacific cod, Atlantic cod, and Pacific halibut, maintain forward whitefish coverage where appropriate, and use pollock, flounder, warm-water shrimp, and Atlantic halibut to help manage seafood costs through the remainder of 2026.

--- If you’re not already, be sure to subscribe to our 3-Minute Market Insight for seafood updates and insights delivered right to your inbox.