A blank sailing occurs when a shipping line cancels a scheduled vessel departure, effectively removing capacity from the market. For seafood importers, this translates to fewer sailings, reduced space for reefer containers, and a higher risk of delays or rolled cargo.

In practice, blank sailings tend to create short-term volatility: either driving up freight rates as space tightens, or forcing shippers to accept last-minute adjustments to logistics plans.

China’s National Day Golden Week (October 1–7) is a week-long public holiday that brings widespread factory closures and a sharp dip in export volumes. For carriers, it is the last major opportunity of the year to manage capacity and stabilize rates.

The industry’s traditional “Golden Week playbook” involves, canceling sailings during the shutdown period to balance reduced demand, implementing rate increases or surcharges ahead of the holiday as shippers rush to move cargo, and gradually reintroducing capacity after the holiday to avoid a post-holiday rate collapse.



Despite sharp declines in trans-Pacific spot rates, carriers have so far been cautious with capacity cuts. According to maritime intelligence provider eeSea, container lines even plan to add nearly 100,000 TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) of capacity in October compared with September.

This runs counter to the usual Golden Week strategy and suggests a wave of blank sailings may soon be announced to correct the imbalance.

Implications for the European Market are that buyers should prepare for higher freight costs, with reefer rates on Asia–Europe routes facing further upward pressure amid Red Sea diversions and looming blank sailings.

Space will tighten, leaving shipments of Chinese-processed cod, pollock, haddock, and shrimp at risk of rollover or delay. At the same time, Golden Week factory closures in China are expected to extend processing and export lead times by two to three weeks.

While some capacity may shift from the trans-Pacific into Asia–Europe, any relief is likely to be outweighed by market volatility and the growing prevalence of premium surcharges for guaranteed space.

Our recommendation is that buyers secure space early for October and November shipments, diversify entry ports, and negotiate rate stability where possible. Buyers should also build flexibility into procurement schedules and closely monitor carrier announcements to anticipate delays and surcharges.



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