NOAA Fisheries announced rolling out import restrictions under the Marine Mammal Protection Act that will bar fish and fish products from certain foreign fisheries from U.S. markets. While these measures may not be aimed directly at shrimp, they could disrupt global seafood trade by limiting access to the American market for a wide range of products.

Some of this displaced volume may seek new outlets, with Europe a likely destination given its role as the world’s largest importer of warmwater shrimp.

For European buyers, this could translate into greater availability and potentially stronger buying power if exporters shut out of the U.S. redirect their focus toward Europe.

Suppliers from South and Southeast Asia and Latin America may intensify competition, which in turn could soften prices. However, the EU’s lack of equivalent marine mammal bycatch standards may invite scrutiny from NGOs and consumers, raising the prospect of future regulatory debate.



At the same time, the U.S. shrimp industry is under heavy pressure. NOAA data shows that just 158.9 million pounds of shrimp were landed in 2024 across the Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic — the lowest since 1961 and 25% below the prior year. Texas, Florida, and Louisiana recorded some of their weakest catches in decades, while only the Carolinas saw modest increases.

This decline is driven not by environmental factors, but by economics. Shrimpers have struggled to compete with a surge of low-cost, farmed imports from India, Ecuador, Indonesia, and Vietnam, which now account for more than 90% of U.S. shrimp consumption. Dockside prices fell to unsustainable lows in 2023, forcing many vessels to remain tied up, and while they recovered slightly in 2024, they remain well below historic norms.

The combination of U.S. import bans and the collapse of its domestic shrimp fleet could reshape European markets in the months ahead. Redirected volumes from Asia and South America may boost the availability of warmwater shrimp, particularly vannamei, which in turn could keep prices soft through 2025. If this plays out, coldwater producers in Greenland, Iceland, and Canada may face greater substitution risk as buyers lean toward lower-cost alternatives. At the same time, the absence of EU trade bans could strengthen Europe’s role as a buyer’s market, though it may also draw added scrutiny over sustainability standards.

Our recommendation to buyers is that the European markets may be entering a period of favorable conditions. Buyers may wish to take advantage of these favorable conditions by securing medium-term contracts at competitive levels, while keeping flexibility to adjust if U.S. trade measures or shifts in global demand alter supply dynamics in 2026.



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