U.S. wholesale shrimp prices remain under pressure but have stabilized at multi-year highs. Importers are largely holding firm on offers as replacement costs remain elevated due to higher freight, feed, and labor expenses at origin. While domestic consumption has softened slightly compared to peak pandemic levels, foodservice demand remains steady, particularly for peeled and deveined products. Inventories are moving again after a sluggish summer, but many packers are still reluctant to lower prices given replacement costs. Duties and trade actions, while a constant talking point, are not expected to meaningfully alter the short-term supply picture. Buyers should anticipate continued firmness through Q4 before potential relief in early 2026 depending on India’s export recovery and Ecuador’s production growth.



India’s shrimp sector has entered a challenging phase following the U.S. tariff hike to 50%, which has disrupted traditional trade flows. Exporters are actively seeking alternative outlets, notably China and domestic retail, to offset losses from the U.S. market. For U.S. buyers, this means reduced access to lower-cost Indian shrimp in the short term. Meanwhile, EU buyers may also divert away from Indian supply in early 2026 if the ongoing antibiotic residue compliance issues are not resolved—potentially amplifying pressure on India’s export competitiveness.

China’s shrimp demand is rebounding post Golden Week, with lower inventories and rising imports keeping Ecuadorian prices stable but firm. A new Chinese-owned processing plant opening in Ecuador in early 2026 will deepen China’s supply chain integration, tightening competition for raw materials and likely driving up Ecuadorian farmgate and global replacement costs.

Adding further instability, a recent radiation-related shipment blockage of 600 MT of Indonesian shrimp (from BMS) has heightened U.S. inspection scrutiny, indirectly impacting all Asian shrimp shipments.

The Indonesian government has ordered shrimp packers to suspend exports to the U.S. until October 31 pending radiation safety certification. While the interruption is temporary, it adds to short-term supply tightness. This move underscores growing U.S. oversight on food safety compliance, which may delay shipments and add inspection costs. Buyers sourcing from Indonesia should expect short-term delivery disruptions but limited long-term price impact once certification resumes.

China’s shrimp consumption is rebounding post–Golden Week, with inventories falling and import activity increasing. Prices for Ecuadorian shrimp have remained stable but firm, suggesting steady demand recovery in both the retail and foodservice segments. A new Chinese-owned processing plant in Ecuador is expected to open in early 2026, further integrating China into Ecuador’s supply chain and tightening competition for raw materials. This could lead to upward pressure on farmgate prices in Ecuador and higher replacement costs for importers worldwide.


Ecuador continues to strengthen its position as the world’s largest shrimp exporter. Industry “technification” (automation, aeration systems, and biosecurity improvements) is projected to boost production by 15% in 2026. While short-term prices remain stable, exporters have started testing higher price levels in China, signaling confidence in demand growth. The sector is also consolidating, with smaller and less efficient farms exiting—a trend that should improve long-term cost efficiency and consistency in quality. For North American buyers, Ecuador remains the most stable supply source, though rising Chinese competition for volume could tighten availability and lift prices modestly in Q1 2026.

Argentina’s offshore shrimp season ended with a 40,000-ton shortfall after months of labor disputes, poor weather, and regulatory uncertainty, with the current catch of about 140,000 metric tonnes—around 32% below the five-year average. The reduced harvest will limit raw material for both domestic processing and export, particularly HOSO red shrimp bound for Europe and China. Limited production and firm EU demand are expected to keep prices elevated, especially for larger counts, though the impact on North American markets remains minimal due to limited direct trade.

Our recommendation is that buyers spread sourcing between Ecuador, Indonesia, and select certified Indian suppliers once trade normalizes, while monitoring tariff developments and compliance issues closely. In the short-term (Q4 2025), expect firm prices across origins, limited promotional activity, and longer lead times due to origin-level disruptions. In the medium-term (Q1 2026), we could see potential price easing if Indian exports resume at scale and Ecuador’s production ramp-up materializes.

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