The Red Sea crisis continues to disrupt traditional shipping corridors, forcing carriers to route vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. This has not only extended transit times by up to two weeks but also constrained capacity, contributing to higher spot rates across multiple trade lanes.

On the Asia–Europe route, carriers successfully halted a 30% rate decline earlier this year through two rounds of April price hikes, while Trans-Pacific eastbound rates—crucial for U.S. seafood importers—have also risen following new General Rate Increases (GRIs). These adjustments are expected to persist as demand builds toward Chinese New Year 2026, a period when space tightens further and reefer cargo such as frozen seafood faces increasing competition from higher-paying commodities.



Similar constraints are emerging on the Peru–Asia route, where freight rates have climbed sharply as carriers prioritize fruit shipments over frozen fish, reducing available reefer capacity. The upward rate trend is anticipated to become more pronounced between late October and November, leading to higher landed costs for frozen seafood moving through Asia-based processing and consolidation hubs.

At the same time, tariff volatility and customs regulation changes are creating new financial headwinds for U.S. importers.

Recent tariff hikes have led to a surge in customs guarantees, forcing importers to secure significantly larger bonds to clear goods through U.S. ports. This is generating an acute liquidity burden, particularly for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which now face higher risks of delays, penalties, or even blocked shipments if coverage is insufficient.

This dynamic is contributing to a broader slowdown in U.S. import activity—industry analysts expect growth to remain muted through spring 2026. The potential for chain bankruptcies among smaller importers raises the risk of supply contraction, which could translate to higher consumer prices for seafood and other imported goods.

In contrast, the Canadian market has demonstrated relative stability. S&P Global recently upgraded Canada’s GDP outlook to 1.7%, supported by resilient exports and a more balanced container trade environment. With the U.S. logistics landscape tightening, Canadian ports may serve as an increasingly important gateway for seafood products entering North America in the coming months.



Our recommendation is for buyers to plan for higher surcharges and longer transit times, strengthen cash flow management as customs guarantee demands grow, and diversify entry points through Canadian ports or trusted 3PL partners to reduce risk. Importers who secure freight space early, lock in rate agreements, and review bonding strategies will be best positioned to maintain stable supply and pricing through late 2025 into early 2026.

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