Cod remains one of the tightest and most volatile categories in the European market. Norwegian fresh cod exports rose 36 percent in volume and 53 percent in value year-over-year, reflecting strong seasonal demand, while frozen exports fell 3 percent in volume but climbed 15 percent in value. Farmed cod is rapidly expanding its presence, accounting for 59 percent of the value of Norwegian fresh-cod exports in September - the highest share on record. Reduced quotas, stressed stocks, and heavy seasonal buying are expected to keep cod prices firm and rising into early 2026, with frozen loins and fillets facing the strongest pressure.



In small pelagics, mackerel is the dominant market risk. A proposed 77 percent cut to the 2026 Northeast Atlantic mackerel quota has already triggered substantial price inflation, following a marked decline in stock biomass. In Q3, Norwegian mackerel exports fell 22 percent in volume but increased 22 percent in value, driving a 40 percent rise in unit prices and pushing whole frozen mackerel under 600 grams to a new record of NOK 42.01 per kilogram. If the quota cut is adopted, severe supply shortages are likely in 2026. Herring remains comparatively stable, with modest increases in both volume and value.

Despite economic and geopolitical challenges, salmon continues to perform strongly. Norway exported 416,855 tonnes in Q3, valued at NOK 32 billion - up 13 percent in volume and 2 percent in value year-over-year - largely driven by surging Asian demand. Norway now commands approximately 65 percent of China’s salmon import market, up sharply from last year. Fresh HOG salmon prices reached NOK 81.42 per kilogram (€6.99) in Week 39, nearly 30 percent higher than earlier in the season. Trout is following a similar upward trend, with higher exports and prices reaching NOK 74.82 per kilogram. Both species are expected to remain firm into early 2026, supported by strong demand and favorable currency dynamics.

The European tuna market continues to expand despite tightening global supply conditions. Spain increased its tuna loin imports to 107,000 tonnes in the first half of 2025 - 20,000 tonnes more than the previous year - largely due to reduced production from fleets operating in the Indian Ocean, where yellowfin availability remains low. This has increased reliance on Ecuador, Seychelles, and West African suppliers. Prices for skipjack and yellowfin, both wholefish and cooked loins, continue to rise across major trade hubs. With supply unlikely to improve soon, tuna prices are expected to stay firm into Q1 2026, especially for loins and wholefish used in canning.

Additional species categories are adding to the region’s tightening supply landscape. Argentine red shrimp prices have risen by €0.20–€0.40 per kilogram due to delayed fisheries and early holiday purchasing. Cephalopods remain constrained, with octopus in particularly short supply and squid prices continuing to rise. In bivalves, Galicia’s mussels remain in strong demand despite environmental pressures, while French oysters face ongoing losses tied to algae-related mortality.



Looking ahead to November 2025 through January 2026, price momentum is expected to remain upward for mackerel, cod, salmon, and tuna due to quota cuts, strong demand, and persistent supply limitations. Herring, seabass, seabream, and pangasius should remain more stable, though not immune to broader cost pressures. Key risks include adoption of the proposed mackerel quota cut, further reductions in cod quotas, rapid shifts in salmon flows to Asia, climate impacts on shellfish, and currency fluctuations.

The remainder of 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most supply-constrained periods in recent years for Europe’s seafood market. Rising prices in groundfish, small pelagics, salmon, and tuna are being amplified by seasonal buying and tightening global supply dynamics. Buyers should expect firm-to-rising prices through the holiday season and prepare for additional challenges in 2026, particularly in cod and mackerel where quota reductions and biological pressures pose significant long-term risks.



Our recommendation is to lock in volumes and/or increase forward purchasing as reduced quotas and tightening supply will continue pushing cod prices higher into 2026. Especially for frozen loins and fillets, and as strengthening global demand, particularly from Asia, is expected to keep salmon prices firm and rising through the holiday period and into early 2026.

--- If you’re not already, be sure to subscribe to our 3-Minute Market Insight for seafood updates and insights delivered right to your inbox.