U.S. Tariffs & Import Rules Tighten Further: The United States enters 2026 with two major trade barriers still firmly in place. First, almost all seafood processed in China continues to face Section 301 tariffs, keeping a 25% cost burden on many value-added whitefish items. This includes Pacific cod, pollock, haddock, and squid. Supply chains remain stretched as buyers look to Vietnam, India, and Thailand to avoid tariff exposure. Second, the U.S. ban on Russian seafood — including Russian fish processed in third countries — will continue to disrupt supply of pollock blocks, cod, king crab, and salmon roe. This keeps North American buyers heavily dependent on Alaska, Canada, Norway, and Japan, sustaining elevated price levels into 2026.

MMPA Import Restrictions Begin January 1, 2026: The biggest regulatory shift next year is the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act import rule, which goes live January 1st. Foreign fisheries that do not meet U.S. bycatch and marine mammal protection standards will have their seafood barred from the U.S. market. This is expected to reshape trade flows for several high-risk gear types and regions. The outcome? A tighter supply pool, more demand for certified fisheries, and likely price pressure in Q1 and Q2.



EU Policies Raise Costs: Tariffs + ETS + Traceability: In Europe, traditional tariff schedules remain in place — but the real impact comes from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and stricter IUU traceability rules. ETS charges continue to rise in 2026, effectively adding a carbon tax on seafood imports, especially from Asia, South America, and North Atlantic fisheries. Combined with anti-dumping duties on species like pangasius and warmwater shrimp, EU landed costs will continue trending higher. Expect some buyers to shift toward Norway, Morocco, Turkey, and domestic aquaculture to reduce tariff and freight exposure.

WTO Subsidy Rules & High Seas Treaty Begin Reshaping Supply: Two major global agreements begin reshaping wild-capture supply in 2026. The WTO Fisheries Subsidy Agreement forces countries to scale back harmful subsidies tied to overfishing, IUU fishing, and fuel support. This will gradually reduce fishing effort, especially among distant-water fleets, tightening global supply over the coming years. Meanwhile, the High Seas Treaty enters full force in January 2026, enabling new marine protected areas and stricter environmental assessments in international waters. While changes will roll out over time, high-seas harvest volumes are expected to face new constraints.

MARKET UPDATE: Cod, Haddock, Wild Salmon & China Processing: The markets for Pacific Cod, Atlantic Cod, Haddock, and Wild Salmon remain very hot, with pricing at seasonal highs. Demand is strong, and reports indicate weaker cod catches, supporting firm pricing through Christmas and into Chinese New Year. Groundfish Forum forecasts point to global supply declines for Atlantic Cod, Pacific Cod, and Pollock, while Haddock is the only species expected to see increased supply — though prices remain supported as buyers substitute away from more expensive cod. In China, processors face a CNY shutdown from February 6th to the end of February, but capacity is already fully booked, leaving no production room before CNY. Any new orders risk shipping delays until March or April.



Looking ahead, 2026 will be shaped by the combined weight of policy change, tightening quotas, tariff pressure, and production bottlenecks. With supply already strained across key species and further regulatory hurdles approaching, buyers should plan proactively, secure volumes early, and monitor market developments closely. As always, we will continue tracking these dynamics to keep you informed in the months ahead.

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