Stock projections into 2026 show spawning biomass is stable to slightly improving, supported by a few strong year classes, but overall productivity remains historically low leaving little biological buffer. At a status-quo 2025 TCEY of 29.72 million pounds, stock-decline risk is considered manageable. At the three-year surplus level of roughly 39 million pounds (a TCEY last seen in 2021), the probability of stock decline exceeds 50 percent. While the stock is not overfished, absolute biomass remains near a 30-year low due to weak recruitment, and despite 2025 mortality falling to a 100-year low, catch rates remain near early-1990s lows.

We won’t know the 2026 TCEY until the IPHC sets the fishery limits on January 22, however projections point to a most likely range of 28 to 32 million pounds, with 29 to 30 million pounds the most defensible outcome under current risk tolerances resulting in a status-quo TCEY for 2026.



From a market perspective, this suggests no meaningful supply relief of North American sourced Pacific Halibut in 2026.

Although Russia produces roughly 3–4 million pounds of Pacific Halibut annually, Russian-origin product remains effectively barred from North American markets and provides no meaningful supply relief.

When considering Atlantic Halibut as an alternative to Pacific Halibut, Canada’s wild-caught Atlantic Halibut Total Allowable Catch has increased steadily over the past decade, rising from roughly 12 million pounds in 2018 to more than 18 million pounds for the 2025–2026 season - roughly equivalent to the entire Pacific Halibut harvest on the West Coast this year.

With that said, our recommendation is that buyers should look to Atlantic Halibut, wild and farmed, to meet their halibut requirements throughout 2026, as Pacific Halibut supply this year is expected to mirror last year’s tight supply conditions.



A notable development on the science side is that the IPHC is testing AI-assisted ageing of halibut otoliths. This tool is designed to support - not replace human experts, improving efficiency and consistency in age data. Importantly, this has no direct impact on 2026 harvest limits, but signals longer-term efforts to strengthen stock assessment quality.

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