BACKGROUND: A FISHERY WITH HISTORY
Northern cod is one of the most iconic fisheries in the world, largely due to its collapse in 1992, when Canada shut the fishery down entirely. Prior to that collapse, annual catches peaked at approximately 810,000 metric tons in the late 1960s under an open-access system with limited effective control. Following more than three decades under moratorium, the fishery reopened in 2024 with a modest Total Allowable Catch of 18,000 metric tons. Just one year later, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) doubled the quota to 38,000 metric tons for 2025, bringing Northern cod back into the global spotlight.

WHAT THE SCIENCE SAYS NOW
According to DFO’s latest stock assessment, Northern cod spawning biomass has remained stable between 300,000 and 600,000 metric tons for nearly a decade. The 2025 biomass estimate is approximately 524,000 metric tons, with a 99% probability that the stock remains above the critical zone. While this does not represent a return to historic biomass levels, scientists agree that the stock is now healthy enough to support a moderate, tightly managed commercial fishery.



WHY THE STOCK “IMPROVED” WITHOUT A LARGE BIOMASS SURGE
A key point often overlooked is that the apparent improvement in stock status does not reflect a sudden increase in cod abundance, but rather a change in how the stock is assessed. In 2023, DFO updated its assessment framework by recalculating reference points around modern Maximum Sustainable Yield, formally integrating ecosystem variables such as capelin, and recognizing that climate change has imposed a lower productivity ceiling on Northern cod. Capelin biomass increased by more than 90% last year, improving prey availability, while long-term oceanographic shifts suggest the stock is unlikely to ever return to mid-20th-century levels regardless of fishing pressure. This reframing is central to understanding why the fishery was reopened.

GLOBAL CONTEXT: HOW NORTHERN COD COMPARES
In global context, the story becomes more nuanced. An Atlantic Groundfish Council comparison shows that Northern cod now holds the largest spawning stock biomass among major cod fisheries, exceeding those of Iceland and the Barents Sea. However, fishing pressure remains exceptionally low. Northern cod fishing mortality is near 0.02, compared with roughly 0.20 in Iceland and more than 0.60 in the Barents Sea. Despite the quota increase, Northern cod remains one of the most conservatively fished cod stocks in the world.

WHY THE TAC INCREASE IS STILL CONTROVERSIAL
The quota increase has not been without criticism. Environmental NGOs argue that doubling the TAC is a political decision rather than a precautionary one, warning Canada against repeating past mistakes. DFO scientists and industry stakeholders counter that Northern cod is assessed annually, management can pivot quickly if survey results weaken, and multiple safeguards are built into the system to reduce the TAC if risk increases. Importantly, this recovery is not uniform across Atlantic Canada. Other cod zones, including parts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, remain in critical condition, making this a 2J3KL-specific recovery rather than a coast-wide Canadian cod resurgence.

MARKET SIGNALS: WHAT BUYERS ARE SEEING NOW
This is not merely a theoretical recovery; supply is already materializing. In 2025, Newfoundland and Labrador landed 28,617 metric tons of Atlantic cod, valued at approximately CAD 58 million—an increase of 77% in volume and 90% in value year over year. Through the first nine months of the year, Canadian cod exports reached 6,775 metric tons valued at $46.2 million, with the United States remaining the primary market. Frozen fillets are leading export growth, signaling tangible availability for both retail and foodservice buyers.



WHAT THIS MEANS GOING FORWARD
The key takeaway is clear: Northern cod is not returning to the uncontrolled fishery of the 1960s, nor is it expected to. Under updated science, low fishing mortality, and annual oversight, the stock is re-emerging as a controlled and sustainable supply option after decades off the market.

For buyers, this means gradual supply increases rather than sudden surges, conservative year-to-year quota management, and a fishery that will remain under close scrutiny. This is not a comeback built on optimism, but one defined by restraint.

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