Supply is structurally constrained, not just seasonally tight. Scientific advice for Barents Sea cod points to further quota reductions in 2026, on top of cuts already made for 2025. At the same time, North Sea and Baltic cod fisheries are effectively closed, leaving buyers with very few alternatives. Add in sanctions and geopolitical limits on Russian supply, and cod availability into 2026 remains extremely restricted. Buyers should secure coverage early or actively plan substitutions.

Turning to salmon, volumes out of Norway eased slightly, but prices moved sharply higher late November. The key shift here is trade flow, not production. Asia continues to absorb more Norwegian salmon, tightening availability for Europe. China and Southeast Asia are gaining share, while Europe’s share is gradually declining. Late-month pricing showed renewed strength, reinforcing the idea that salmon prices are supported heading into early 2026, especially for fresh product. Expect firm pricing and limited downside in the near term.



In contrast, tuna markets have softened. Skipjack prices in Bangkok have fallen to around USD 1,550 per tonne, down from early-2025 levels, reflecting post-holiday demand fatigue and increased supply from the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Yellowfin prices have also eased slightly, with further softening expected as quotas reopen in early 2026. At the same time, upcoming US import restrictions under the Marine Mammal Protection Act may redirect fresh tuna volumes toward Europe. Tuna is one of the few categories offering near-term buying opportunities.

Finally, small pelagics. Herring prices climbed more than 20 percent year-on-year, even though volumes slipped slightly. Mackerel prices also rebounded sharply in November, despite record quotas earlier in the season. This is a reminder that pelagic pricing is demand-driven, not quota-driven, especially in key Asian markets. Expect volatility, not stability.

Our Recommendation is to secure groundfish coverage early for 2026, maintain disciplined buying in salmon, and use current softness in tuna to your advantage - while closely monitoring pelagics for demand-driven volatility. In practical terms: Lock in cod and core groundfish positions now or execute substitution strategies to manage cost and availability risk; Plan for continued firmness in salmon pricing, especially for fresh formats, as Asia absorbs more supply; Take selective buying opportunities in tuna while prices remain under pressure heading into early 2026; and Avoid overcommitting in pelagics, as prices are being driven more by demand swings than quota size. This approach balances supply security, price risk management, and tactical opportunity as markets transition into 2026.



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