Norwegian Atlantic cod is at the center of the global whitefish supply crisis. Barents Sea quotas have fallen to **48,530 metric tons—less than half of last year’s levels—**creating a severe shortage in premium markets.

Tightening supply is driving rapid weekly price increases and record premiums, shifting buyer behavior from price optimization to simply securing supply. Alternative sources offer limited relief: Russian cod remains constrained by logistical and regulatory barriers, while substitution from haddock and saithe has proven ineffective due to low catches and rising costs. With a 16% quota reduction for 2026, global processors—particularly in China and Europe—are facing sharply higher costs, and current price levels are increasingly expected to persist or rise, potentially establishing a new baseline.



Russian pollock markets are also tightening, entering a new phase of price escalation. B-season quotes are rising to $2,500–$3,000 per metric ton, up from spot levels around $2,220, reflecting both tightening supply and firm exporter positioning. A key driver is the global whitefish supply gap, particularly the 41% reduction in North Atlantic blue whiting quotas—equivalent to a loss of approximately 600,000 metric tons—which is pushing substitution demand toward pollock across major markets.

At the same time, internal Russian dynamics are limiting export availability: domestic consumption has more than doubled, strong local pricing is incentivizing producers to prioritize the home market, and certification constraints are restricting supply to Europe. As a result, processors—especially in China—are facing margin pressure, with fillet prices needing to rise $200–$300 per ton just to break even.

European buyers remain cautious but have limited alternatives, particularly as production shifts from fillets to H&G. The widening gap between spot and forward pricing underscores a structurally tightening market, with continued upward pressure expected across the pollock value chain.

Wild pink salmon markets are experiencing similar disruption, with prices exceeding $5,000 per metric ton due to sharp supply declines in both Alaska and Russia. Alaska’s 2026 salmon run is projected at approximately 125.5 million fish, down significantly from nearly 195 million in 2025, while Russian harvests are expected to fall to 204,000–260,000 tons, compared to 335,500 tons last year.

This supply shock is placing significant strain on global supply chains and is pushing Chinese processors—key suppliers to Europe and North America—to consider a structural shift toward farmed salmon, primarily from Chile. While buyers are increasingly open to this transition, differences in product specifications such as fat content, texture, size, and labeling present challenges. At the same time, processors are facing shrinking inventories and “cost inversion” risks, where rising input costs exceed final sale prices.

The key uncertainty is whether global retail and foodservice markets will accept farmed salmon as a substitute for wild, a shift that could reshape both near-term supply dynamics and the long-term structure of the salmon market.



Our recommendation is that buyers should secure supply early and plan for continued price increases and market volatility, as availability is becoming more important than cost. As structural supply constraints persist, sourcing strategies should become more flexible, with greater consideration given to alternative species, farmed substitutes, and product specification changes.

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