After a relatively average 2025 season that produced a preliminary global wild salmon harvest of approximately 745,000 metric tonnes, early forecasts point to a significant decline in 2026. Based on current projections from Alaska, Russia, and other major producing regions, global harvests could fall to roughly 514,000 metric tonnes — a decline of more than 30% year-over-year. If realized, the reduction would significantly tighten worldwide supply and likely support firmer pricing across most wild salmon categories throughout the year.

Alaska Forecast Signals Sharp Reduction in Pink Salmon Supply
Alaska remains the world's largest producer of wild Pacific salmon and will once again play a major role in determining global market conditions.

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game forecasts a 2026 harvest of approximately 125 million salmon, equivalent to roughly 255,000 metric tonnes. The most notable change is expected in pink salmon production, where harvests are projected at approximately 56 million fish compared to roughly 120 million fish harvested in 2025.

This substantial decline in pink salmon availability is expected to impact several key market segments, including canned salmon, frozen H&G production, roe markets, and value-added retail programs.

Sockeye salmon production is forecast to remain relatively stable and is expected to continue serving as the cornerstone of Alaska's premium wild salmon offerings.



Russia Forecast Adds Further Pressure
Russia, the second-largest contributor to global wild salmon supply, is also forecasting a significantly smaller harvest in 2026.

Current projections call for a total harvest of approximately 227,000 metric tonnes, compared to roughly 335,000 metric tonnes harvested in 2025. Much of the decline is expected to come from pink salmon, where production is forecast to fall sharply from 2025 levels.

The combination of lower Alaska and Russian pink salmon production creates one of the most important supply-side developments facing seafood buyers in 2026 and is expected to place additional upward pressure on replacement costs throughout the market.

Japan's Chum Salmon Recovery Remains Elusive
While Alaska and Russia remain the dominant drivers of global supply, Japan continues to face long-term challenges in chum salmon production.

Japan's 2025 chum salmon harvest totaled approximately 16,900 metric tonnes — the lowest level recorded since 1952. Scientists and industry participants continue to point to changing marine conditions, warming ocean temperatures, and reduced survival rates as major contributors to the decline.

At this stage, there is little expectation for a meaningful recovery in 2026, further reinforcing concerns about long-term chum salmon availability and pricing.

Lessons from the 2025 Season
The 2025 season provided several important signals for salmon buyers.

Despite improving from 2024 levels, global salmon markets remained considerably tighter than historical averages. Pink salmon harvests underperformed across both Alaska and Asia, chum salmon production reached multi-decade lows in several regions, and North Pacific hatchery releases declined to their lowest level in nearly two decades.

Meanwhile, sockeye salmon remained the most resilient premium wild salmon category, supported by relatively stable production in both Alaska and Russia.

Together, these trends continue to highlight the growing influence of climate conditions, marine survival rates, and hatchery performance on long-term global salmon supply.



Seasonal Timing to Watch
As the season progresses, harvest timing will play a major role in shaping market sentiment and pricing.

The Alaska salmon season traditionally begins with Copper River sockeye and Chinook fisheries in May before sockeye harvests accelerate through June and typically peak in late June and early July. Pink and chum salmon fisheries generally build through July and reach their strongest volumes in early August, while coho salmon harvests develop later in the summer and remain strongest from August through September.

Early catch performance during June and July will likely provide the first meaningful indication of how closely actual harvests track current forecasts.



Our Recommendation
Our recommendation is to stay ahead of the market rather than waiting for lower pricing opportunities. Lower Alaska and Russian pink salmon production, combined with continued weakness in Japanese chum salmon returns, could create one of the tightest wild salmon supply environments in recent memory.

Buyers should expect pricing to strengthen as the season unfolds, particularly for pink salmon, chum salmon, and premium sockeye products. Securing coverage early may prove advantageous if harvest performance falls short of current expectations.

This report is the first of many salmon market updates we will publish throughout the season. Be sure to subscribe to our 3-Minute Market Insight to stay informed on catches, pricing trends, and developments shaping the 2026 global salmon market.

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