Alaska continues to lead the global wild salmon market, with more than 41 million salmon harvested—about one-third of the projected statewide harvest. Bristol Bay has now largely completed another outstanding sockeye harvest, reinforcing its position as the world's largest source of wild sockeye. The Copper River fishery produced another strong premium season, while chum harvests have tracked close to expectations. Coho harvests are only beginning to build, making the final outlook premature. The biggest question mark remains pink salmon, where Alaska's even-year harvest will largely determine global supply for the rest of 2026.

Russia's salmon fishery is developing largely as expected for an even-year cycle, with harvests reaching over 48,000 MT, or 21% of the preseason forecast, through July 28. Harvests continue to build, but overall production is projected to finish well below the exceptional 2025 season, largely because of lower pink salmon returns. Chum production should strengthen through August, while sockeye harvests remain relatively stable. Although Russia remains a major global producer, ongoing import restrictions continue to limit the availability of Russian-origin salmon in North American and European markets, reducing its impact on Western buyers.



British Columbia's outlook has deteriorated rapidly, echoing concerns raised by Salmon veteran Greg Taylor. North Coast pink salmon returns have fallen far below expectations, triggering fishery closures and effectively eliminating hopes for a meaningful commercial pink harvest in several areas. At the same time, the first two Fraser River sockeye run-timing groups have been revised well below preseason forecasts. While the third run-timing group still offers hope, weaker early returns are expected to limit fishing opportunities even if later runs improve. As a result, British Columbia is increasingly unlikely to provide meaningful relief to the tight global wild salmon market.

Washington remains a relatively small contributor to the Pacific salmon market. Fisheries continue under conservative management aimed at protecting vulnerable Chinook and other salmon stocks while maintaining sustainable commercial opportunities. As a result, Washington's harvest is not expected to materially influence overall North American salmon supplies this year.

Sockeye remains the strongest-performing wild salmon species in 2026. Alaska's Bristol Bay fishery has delivered another exceptional harvest, while Russia continues to provide stable production. Although Fraser River forecasts have weakened, overall sockeye availability remains stronger than any other major Pacific salmon species, making it the healthiest segment of the wild salmon market this season.

Pink salmon remains the biggest market concern. British Columbia's North Coast returns have collapsed, while Russia is producing its expected smaller even-year harvest. That leaves Alaska as the primary source of remaining global supply. The final outcome of Alaska's pink salmon season will largely determine market availability and pricing heading into 2027.

Global chum salmon supplies remain structurally tight. Russia is expected to finish below last year's harvest, while Alaska has delivered steady but not exceptional volumes. Japan is forecast to experience another historically weak season, continuing a long-term decline that will keep global chum supplies constrained.




The coho season is still in its early stages, making final production estimates premature. Alaska's harvest is only beginning to build, while British Columbia's outlook remains uncertain amid broader concerns over salmon returns. Supply expectations should become much clearer through August.

Chinook remains the tightest premium salmon species. Conservation measures across Alaska, British Columbia, and Washington continue to restrict commercial harvests, while naturally low abundance limits production. Premium fresh Chinook supplies are expected to remain scarce, keeping prices firm through the remainder of the season.

Our Recommendation is to continue planning for a structurally tight wild salmon market through the remainder of 2026. Secure requirements for pink, chum, and Chinook salmon early, while taking advantage of comparatively stronger sockeye availability where opportunities exist. Alaska's pink salmon harvest will remain the key market indicator, as its performance will largely determine whether global supplies stabilize or tighten further heading into 2027.

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