EP 402 | AIRED 09/03/2018
Cod Shortages, Poor Fishing, Possible China Production Shortages
September 3, 2018 - The "B" Season Fishery for Pacific Cod is underway and the forecast for the market will be anything BUT unpredictable. We have already heard that fishing efforts will be less than the "A" season Pacific Cod fishery...
2018 Alaska Salmon Commercial Harvest Counter
(Harvest in thousands of fish)
Updated: TUE SEP 3 2018 8:13AM (View Previous Weeks Totals)
Some boats will only go out if Cod are schooling or if the waters are showing large numbers of Cod, but that has not been the case for the past two to three seasons.
The 2018 Pacific cod TAC is about 188,136 Metric Tons in the Bering Sea about 15,695 Metric Tons in the Aleutian Islands.
Compare that to the 2017 Bering Sea TAC of 223,704 Metric Tons and Aleutian Islands TAC of 15,695 Metric Tons.
Undoubtedly, there will be additional pressure on inventories of "A" Season Shatterpack Cod.
To make matters worse, some Alaskan processors have only enough inventories of Shatterpack Pacific Cod to fill less than load quantities.
--- In China, our Chinese correspondents have reported seeing Pacific Cod raw materials pricing stable for the last 2 months around $3800 to $4000 per Metric Ton for Russian FAS J-Cut.
Pacific Cod is still priced lower than Atlantic Cod raw materials which are reporting at $4500 with not much fish available.
Inventories of finished goods are essentially non-existent.
It is being widely reported that Chinese Banks are cutting credit loans to fish plants and in turn, plants are not able to take on much raw materials inventory which could leave production very short.
As Fall approaches, many plants in China are reporting that North American buyers are placing their orders in full swing.
Moving into Chinese New Year production some producers are saying their production is busy until November however the loom of the US Tariffs makes forecasting impossible.
As Pacific Cod prices continue an upward trend, we could see demand for Pacific Cod weaken - However, the market has been absorbing all the price increases over the past year.
We recommend keeping tuned into our upcoming market updates as we move into fall.
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