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3-Minute Market Insight

EP 543 | AIRED 06/21/2021

Russian Fishery & Market Update; Salmon Demand Higher, Inventories Presold, Upward Price Trend

June 21st, 2021--- This week we provide a Russian Fishery and Market update, as Alaska and Russia's Salmon fisheries get underway, all while China continues to delay seafood exports from Russia, and while Russian Boats continue to not want to ship into China.

--- Direct Russian seafood exports into China have been plummeting so far in 2021 - lower by as much as five times, and as of May 2, exports into China amounted to only 84 thousand tons compared to 389 thousand tons the same time last year.

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This decline is directly attributed to China refusing to accept seafood products from Russia.

In fact, a new unofficial regulation from CIQ is that all raw material from Russia must be loaded in containers and shipped directly to China, any transshipments are not accepted by CIQ.

Due to the expensive costs at the port of Dalian, most Russian boats won't even ship containers to Dalian right now.

As this is not an official regulation, this is being interpreted as a move by customs to intentionally slow down the process.

--- While Russian seafood exports to China have plummeted, Russian exports of frozen seafood to Japan have sky rocketed.

In the first quarter of 2021, the volume of frozen fish exports into Japan increased 3.2 times to 9.9 thousand metric tonnes with an estimated value of $42 million.

The bulk of this volume came from frozen Sockeye Salmon which fetched $36 million, while last year it's deliveries were only worth $1.4 million.


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--- Moving onto the start of one of the largest Pacific Salmon Fisheries and Russia's Pacific Salmon season got underway on June 1st - simultaneously starting up with Alaska's Summer Salmon season.

Russia's catch mainly includes Pink salmon, Chum salmon, Sockeye and Coho - and during this odd-year season, Russia is forecasting a harvest of about 459 thousand metric tonnes from an estimated 300 million fish.

In comparison, Alaska has projected a harvest of 190.1 million fish this season.

I would also just like to point out that statistically, odd-year seasons in Alaska have always harvested at least 90 percent of the pre-season forecast (with the exception of 2011 showing 87 percent harvested, however 2013, 2015, and 2017 all show well above 100 percent of the forecast harvested).

Globally, an estimated 930,000 metric tonnes of Pacific Salmon is projected to be harvested this year from all countries including Canada, Japan, and Korea.

--- Our recommendation is to get your Salmon request into your Tradex Foods representative now.

Salmon will be higher in demand that last year and as such, expect inventories to be already pre-sold or tight, and prices to trend upwards.

It's a seller's market this year and anyone stalling or counter-offering will be sent to the bottom of the pile.

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