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3-Minute Market Insight

EP 628 | AIRED 02/20/2023

HUGE 2023 Russia Salmon Forecast, Big Pink Salmon Year, Chums Overestimated

Feb 20th, 2023 - Preliminary 2023 forecasts out of Russia are for a whopping 511,000 metric tonne Pacific Salmon harvest this year.

This would make it one of the largest forecasts on record in recent years - and Russia almost always harvests more than what it forecasts.

Russian Pink Salmon will lead the way with an astounding 375,000 metric tonnes forecasted. (Compare this to last year's harvest of 147,000 metric tonnes.)

We caught up with pacific salmon industry expert Vladimir Radchenko and his view is optimistic for 2023.

Catch Data Russia Salmon Harvest

[Vladimir Radchenko]
First, I am glad to see a recovery of Hokkaido chum salmon stock last year. Scientists likely will relate it to the end of strong 2014-2019 ocean heat wave.

As for the Russian forecast, chum salmon expectations for 2023 look to be overestimated. Russian fishermen did not reach a pre-season forecast level for chum salmon third year in a row in 2022.

Vladimir Radchenko

In the contrary, pink salmon continue beating records. If feeding conditions in the ocean occur to be even moderately favorable, pink salmon harvest in 2023 can be over the 2021 record (649,217 mt of commercial catch throughout the North Pacific).

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Last year saw the second lowest global salmon harvest since 2008 with preliminary totals around 720,000 metric tonnes from all countries (including Canada, Korea, Japan, Russia, and USA).

However, we may be in for another million metric ton Wild Pacific Salmon year - with Bristol Bay's Sockeye Run forecasted at 51 million fish, coined with it being a higher-yield odd-year season for Pink Salmon.

HUGE 2023 Russia Salmon Forecast, Big Pink Salmon Year, Chums Overestimated

This is the first of many Salmon updates leading up to what looks like another exciting Summer Salmon season, so be sure to subscribe to our Tradex Foods "3-Minute Market Insight".

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