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3-Minute Market Insight

EP 659 | AIRED 09/25/2023

Fall Chum Salmon Outlook, Summer Chum Salmon Recap

Sept 25th, 2023 - As the Summer Salmon Season winds down, it's time for Chum Salmon buyers to shift their focus slightly towards the upcoming Fall Chum Salmon fisheries.

Before delving into the prospects of the Fall season, let's bring you up to speed on the current state of the Summer Chum Salmon fisheries.

In Alaska, statewide Keta harvest followed an unusual pattern as preliminary data show a single mid-summer harvest peak, rather than separate summer and fall peaks as they typically do.

Current Keta catch in Alaska is at about 20 million fish harvested, surpassing the preseason forecast by 20 percent.

On the other side of the Pacific, Russian Chum Salmon harvest seems destined to fall short of the preseason forecast for the fourth consecutive year.

This aligns with our earlier report in February, where our Salmon expert noted that the Russian Chum Salmon forecasts for 2023 were overestimated.

As of mid-September, only 58 percent of the Chum Salmon preseason forecast has been realized in Russia.

Fall Chum Salmon Outlook, Summer Chum Salmon Recap

Now, let's turn our attention to the eagerly awaited Fall Chum Salmon fisheries.

The primary spotlight on the West Coast this Fall will be on the Puget Sound Chum Salmon fishery in Washington.

The 2023 preseason run size forecast by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife predicts an impressive run of approximately 530,000 Chum Salmon.

Fall Chum Salmon Outlook, Summer Chum Salmon Recap

This projection is in line with last year's forecast, which saw Washington State harvesting over 1 million Chum Salmon — an astonishing 66 percent increase from the previous year, reaching numbers not witnessed since 2017.

The Puget Sound Chum Salmon fishery should start around the 1st week of October and go until late November.

Turning our gaze towards Japan, Hokkaido was the world's largest Chum Salmon producer in 2022, with a remarkable output of 85,000 tons from a harvest of 30 million fish.


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While this represents a substantial 41 percent increase from the previous year, it marked the first time in seven years the harvest surpassed 30 million.

As the Hokkaido Fishery season approaches, the forecast for this year anticipates a run of 34.83 million Autumn Salmon - a 4 percent uptick from the previous year.

Fall Chum Salmon Outlook, Summer Chum Salmon Recap

While the majority of Hokkaido Chum Salmon is utilized for the domestic market, the combination of a large harvest, China's recent import ban on Japan, and a somewhat subdued Salmon market this year could pave the way for novel opportunities.

Our recommendation is to stay tuned-in to the 3MMI for further updates on the Fall Chum Salmon, and to contact Tradex Foods today to strategize your Chum Salmon program.

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