EP 665 | AIRED 11/06/2023
Atlantic Cod & Pollock Update: Cod Supply Tight, More Pollock, Impending Price Ceiling Shift Demand to other Whitefish
Nov 6th, 2023 - Atlantic Cod supplies are going to be tight as the Barents Sea Cod quotas are set see a 20 percent reduction next year to about 450,000 tonnes.
This “may” lead to further upward price pressure, however, there is also speculation on whether Cod’s price limit has been reached.
Atlantic cod is making headway in China, particularly in the middle to high-end markets. However, substantial growth in cod imports is not anticipated for the current year.
Rising inflation across markets might compel consumers to opt for more affordable farmed whitefish varieties like tilapia or pangasius prompting consideration among processors to explore alternative whitefish options.
In contrast, there will be more Pollock on the market next year and this species is expected to capture market shares from Cod, Saithe and Haddock.
Alaska’s Pollock season is essentially over with 99 percent of the Total Allowable Catch harvested. The TAC for 2024 is set at about 1.48 million tonnes which is similar to this year’s.
Russia’s Pollock season is nearing the tailend and will probably see about 90 to 95 percent of the 2.06 million tonne Total Allowable Catch harvested.
The Russian Pollock TAC for 2024 is set to increase to 2.29 million tonnes.
In the first half of 2023, China's imports of whole frozen Pollock rose by 12.5 percent to 380,000 tonnes and 94 percent of it was sourced from Russia.
Additionally, frozen Pollock fillet exports increased by 12.1 percent to about 88,000 tonnes, primarily shipped to Europe, where Germany and the United Kingdom accounted for 49 and 10 percent of the total, respectively.
The pulse still remains too faint for a definitive reading, but it's reasonable to speculate that if Cod prices persist in their ascent, buyers may shift their focus to Pollock, exerting price pressure on this species until the market reaches its limit.
Our recommendation is that if you have been on the fence on Pollock, now may be the time to commit.
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