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3-Minute Market Insight

EP 679 | AIRED 02/26/2024

2024 Russia Salmon Forecast, Market Dynamics, Season Outlook

Feb 26th, 2024 - Russia’s Pacific Salmon forecast for 2024 was presented last week and scientists are predicting the catch volume to be around 320,000 metric tonnes.

This forecast is just slightly lower than the last even-year, but also makes it one of the lowest Russian Salmon forecast in a decade.

Historically, Russia has struggled to meet its forecasted catch volumes for the last two even-year cycles, underscoring a trend of not fully realizing the forecast.

However, experts are optimistic about a turnaround, predicting a progressive increase in the Pacific salmon catch starting from 2024, in subsequent even-numbered years. Pink Salmon is again expected to constitute the majority of the catch (as is typical in the Russian fishery).

This year's forecast for Pink Salmon is predicted at 193,000 metric tonnes, slightly above the forecast for 2022, yet 16 percent below that of 2020.

Russian Salmon Forecast

Contrasting with this forecast, last year's actual catch exceeded 609,000 metric tonnes of Pacific Salmon, setting a record for the highest odd-year harvest and ranking second only to the exceptional haul of over 677,000 tonnes in 2018.

This stark comparison indicates that this year's forecasted volume will be nearly 50 percent lower than last year's actual catch, translating to a significant reduction of almost 300,000 metric tonnes from the global market supply compared to the previous year's contribution.

When compared with the expectations for the 2024 Alaska Salmon season, it's noteworthy that Alaska’s Pink Salmon harvests in even-years are typically lower than in odd-years.


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This trend suggests potential supply constraints for the USA market, especially in light of the ban on Russian-origin Salmon entering the U.S. now being enforced.

The past five even-year average for Salmon Seasons in Alaska computes to around 61,000,000 Pink Salmon (or roughly 96,000 metric tonnes).

Our recommendation is to start preparations now for securing your Salmon requirements for the year.

Russian Salmon Forecast

This historical data underscores the challenges and adjustments that may be needed to meet potential U.S. market demand under current import restrictions.

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