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3-Minute Market Insight

EP 695 | AIRED 06/17/2024

2024 Salmon Market Predictions

June 17th, 2024 - Alaska’s renowned Copper River Salmon opening in mid-May marked the start of the 2024 Summer Salmon Season, with Sockeye, King, and Chum salmon arriving first, followed by Pink and Coho later in the summer.

The openers saw Sockeye averaging between 5.5 and 6 pounds, and King salmon around 14 pounds per fish.

Sockeye size is said to be about the same as the 10-year average and king salmon are below the 10-year average.

The 2024 forecast for Alaska's salmon harvest is 135.7 million fish, marking a 42 percent decrease from last year's total.

This reduction is in line with the typical biennial fluctuations caused by the varying abundance of Pink Salmon.

This year's Pink Salmon forecast is 69 million fish, down 55 percent from last year's harvest.

Alaska's Sockeye salmon forecast for 2024 is 39.5 million fish, representing a 24 percent decrease from last year's harvest.

Conversely, the Chum salmon forecast is set at 24 million fish, which is an increase compared to last year's harvest.

Notably, in recent years, Alaska's harvests of both Chum and Sockeye salmon have consistently exceeded forecasts.

2024 Salmon Market Predictions

In Russia, the total salmon forecast for 2024 is 312,500 metric tonnes, representing a decrease of approximately 49 percent from last year's harvest of over 600,000 metric tonnes.

Russia primarily harvests Pink and Chum salmon, but it's important to note that salmon of Russian origin is banned from entering the USA.

On the market side, Wild Salmon will be crazy this year.

Sockeye is expected to be in shorter supply with significantly higher prices compared to last year, particularly for fillets. The anticipated price increases are likely to slow down fillet sales.

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Pink salmon is also projected to be in shorter supply, with the Russian ban on deliveries to the USA expected to substantially increase the cost of raw materials compared to last year's supply.

Some USA packers are expected to be nearly sold out.

For Chum salmon, the volume is forecasted to be high this year, but the fish will be smaller and priced higher.

The 2-4 size Chums can replace Pinks, initially starting at a lower price but expected to rise.

2024 Salmon Market Predictions

Our recommendation is to get your Salmon commitments in now to your Tradex Food business representative.

If you don’t have one, just give us a call or DM us on whatever platform you are watching this report from.

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