EP 676 | AIRED 02/05/2024
AI Predicts the 2024 Alaska Salmon Season
Feb 5th, 2024 - AI models are capable of various tasks, including language processing, image and speech recognition, to decision-making - so we ask AI to make predictions on the 2024 Alaska Salmon Season.
An analysis of the past decade reveals a consistent pattern that odd-years typically yield higher salmon harvests than even-years, predominantly due to the cyclical abundance of Pink Salmon.
Despite fluctuations in harvest quantities, the value of the fishery has not always aligned predictably with these numbers. Notably, Sockeye salmon has consistently held high economic value relative to its harvest quantity. For instance, in 2023, Sockeye accounted for 45% of the fishery's total value with only 23% of the harvest.
Considering 2024 is an even-year, it's anticipated to follow the trend of lower harvest totals compared to odd-years and the prediction for the 2024 harvest is approximately 130 million Salmon. However, with an estimated 30 million Sockeye salmon, a species of significant economic value, the total value of the 2024 harvest could be disproportionately high relative to the total harvest quantity.
Adding pressure to prices this year are the U.S. sanctions barring Russian salmon imports which present a potential boon for the Alaskan salmon market. The absence of Russian salmon will lead to increased demand for Alaskan salmon, driving up prices and the total value of the harvest. This scenario is particularly beneficial for high-value species like Sockeye, which is predicted to have a strong presence in the 2024 season.
In conclusion, the 2024 Alaska Salmon season is poised for a potentially lucrative year, especially given the forecasted substantial harvest of Sockeye salmon and the favorable market conditions stemming from the U.S. sanctions on Russian salmon.
While the overall harvest quantity is expected to be lower than in odd years, the value of the harvest could be significantly augmented due to the combined effects of increased demand and the high-value Sockeye harvest.
As always, these predictions are subject to change based on environmental factors, market dynamics, and fishery management decisions. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game should release their Run Forecast and Harvest Projections in April.
Our recommendation is to start preparing your Salmon requirements for this year.
Despite Alaska's robust salmon harvest last year ranking as the fourth highest historically, the overall value of the fishery notably ranked as the sixth lowest since 1975.
Considering the anticipated decrease in Alaska's salmon harvest this year, any further geopolitical developments would likely apply more upward price pressure in the market.
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