The Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s 2025 projection is for nearly 215 million fish led mostly by the typical surge of Pink Salmon during odd-numbered years. Alaska Sockeye is also projected to see a higher harvest than the last two years with the highest forecast since the record Sockeye year of 2022.

Interestingly enough, looking at historical data for trends shows a pattern in Alaska’s odd-numbered year salmon harvests: the last two exceeded forecasts, the two before that were at or below, the two before those were above, and the two prior came in below.

While the outlook for Alaska salmon supply appears strong, global wild salmon harvests are set to hit another record low - driven largely by yet another poor season in Russia.



Russia is forecasting a 2025 salmon harvest of around 311,000 metric tons—nearly 50% below its record catch of over 600,000 metric tons in the last odd-numbered year and about 30% below the five-year odd-year average. Russian Scientists caution that record catches are unlikely for the next five to seven years signaling a recovery phase for the fishery.

If global salmon harvest this year are estimated to be around 500,000 metric tons, this would equate to 50% less global salmon supply than the 1 million metric tons harvested in 2023 - the last odd-numbered year, and another record low year similar to last year.



As for the market, it’s still too early to predict how things will unfold this year, with geopolitical tensions, shifting supply, demand, and exchange rates between the U.S., China, Russia, and Europe all playing a major role. What we do know is that global wild salmon supply will be low, and there could be a massive strain on Alaska salmon supply.



Our recommendation is to start talking to your Tradex Foods rep now about all your Salmon requirements for the remainder of the year.



Be sure to subscribe to our 3-Minute Market Insight using the signup or links below to keep tuned-in to the 2025 Salmon Season. This episode marks the first of many Summer Salmon Season updates we will put out as the Alaska salmon season officially kicks off May 22 with the world renowned Copper River Salmon opening.

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