EP 6 | AIRED 11/08/2010

Alaskan Pollock Quotas, Food Service Sector

November 8, 2010 - Hello and Welcome - My name is Robert Reierson - President & CEO of Tradex Foods. Thank you for joining us for the sixth edition of The Tradex Foods "3-Minute Market Insight" The Monday morning “pulse report” for seafood purchasers.

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The Alaska Regional Office of the National Marine Fisheries Service has increased the Total Allowable Catch for both Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska Pollock. The 2011 Bering Sea catch could increase to 1.1 million metric tons – an increase of 35 percent over 2010. The Gulf of Alaska Total Allowable Catch has been set at 97,174 metric tons – an increase of 32 percent over 2010. Wholesale prices for Alaskan Pollock have been increasing since 2002 - largely a result of decreasing supply. But this coming year - the increased quotas combined with an increasingly competitive whitefish market may put downward pressure on prices. The whitefish market is being flooded by recovered Cod & Haddock stocks and by increased aquaculture production of Pangasius and Tilapia. Despite the added supply - it is important to remember that the Alaskan Pollock fishery is MSC-certified and is recognized worldwide for producing premium quality fish. As consumers increasingly insist on high-quality and sustainable product - demand will remain steady and prevent prices from bottoming out. IN OTHER NEWS – Statistics Canada reported dismal findings for the economy this past summer – in July - it shrank for the first time in almost a year by 0.1percent and in August growth rebounded to a modest 0.3 percent. Uncertainty in the global economy and a sluggish domestic recovery shook consumer confidence and the result was definitely noticeable in the numbers. And yet - recent Consumer Confidence numbers show that Canadians are optimistic about the future. The TNS Consumer Confidence Index rose 1.5 points to end October at 96.3. The index measures consumers’ views on the current state of the economy - their future expectations and whether they are confident enough to make a major purchase. So - what does this mean for business in the foodservice and restaurant sectors? Well - I think everyone will agree that the foodservice sector has suffered tremendously since the economic recession. In 2009 - real foodservice sales were 4.7 percent below 2008 levels. However - 2010 numbers are promising – initial projections were that a healthier economy and rising disposable income would put more money in Canadians pockets and result in more spending. Real foodservice sales were anticipated to reach $60 billion this year – an increase of 0.7 percent. As of April 2010 - sales had indeed grown and were 1.1 percent above 2009 levels. The forecast for 2011 is looking a bit slower as consumer spending will likely diminish due to rising debt levels – BUT - the five-year forecast for the industry is strong. Between 2011 and 2014 - real foodservice sales are expected to rise by an average of 1.1percent. This is slower than the average annual growth rate between 2005 and 2008 and can be attributed to softer increases in disposable income over the coming years. Be sure to join us next Monday – for additional news on a changing economy from the EU perspective - Thank you for joining me for The Tradex Foods - "3-Minute Market Insight" This is Robert Reierson - “BUY SMART” and “EAT MORE SEAFOOD”

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