EP 10 | AIRED 12/06/2010

Cod, Haddock, future of the Pangasius Market

December 6, 2010 - Hello and Welcome - My name is Robert Reierson - Thank you for joining us for The Tradex Foods "3-Minute Market Insight" - The Monday morning “pulse report” for seafood purchasers.

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Some Fast Facts to start this week’s insight: - Cat fish raw material supply from China is proving difficult to source for export – to North America – as the Chinese domestic market is retaining much of the supply. - Currency fluctuations have forced Chinese suppliers to hold back on quoting prices on finished products. - This – combined with Chinese New Year and increased sales from China to Brazil and Russia – is beginning to leave North America – in the cold. - Pangasius raw material supply was up in price – 15 cents per kilogram – with strong pressure on supply. In news this week - H&G Cod prices are on the rise. - The price for a metric ton of H&G Cod is up 25 percent from just 3 months ago – that is about 4,000 USD. - In 2008 - prices reached $5,000 and the market collapsed because buyers switched to lower prices alternatives - such as Pangasius. - In fact - the 2008 market collapse was a large part of the reason why Pangasius was able to penetrate the European market. - Today - strong demand remains for H&G Cod – prices were very low 6 months ago and they are now JUST reaching reasonable levels. - A major factor influencing the prices is increased demand in Russia. - Russia purchased more Cod & Haddock than normal during the summer months – eliminating a buildup of inventories. - On top of this – a weakening dollar against both the pound and Euro - is pushing prices upwards. - Prices for frozen-at-sea Cod and Haddock fillets are stable - but they could also rise over the next 2-3 months. One side-affect of the high priced H&G may be that ship owners produce fewer fillets – effectively pushing prices higher in the New Year. - It is undetermined whether the increased quotas in 2011 will bring prices back down. Stock levels of Cod – both H&G and fillets - in China & Europe are so low right now that it may take awhile for the increased quotas to have an impact. In other news - Pangasius pricing in North America is strong right now. - A supply shortfall of Vietnamese fish - combined with rising commodity prices - has pushed prices upwards. - Across the ocean - in Europe - buyers are seeing just the opposite. - Prices for IQF fillets are so low that Vietnamese processors are stockpiling the fish in cold storages in Vietnam. - Demand for product in Europe is strong at the consumer level - but – recent attacks by Dutch and Scottish politicians have pushed prices down. - SO - the future of the Pangasius market rests largely in the hands of the US government who – in January - will decide whether to shift regulation of Pangasius from the FDA to the USDA. - The decision will result either in Vietnamese product flooding the US market or a drastically reduced supply to the US - forcing the Vietnamese to seek out alternative markets. Stay tuned… Thank you for joining me for The Tradex Foods - "3-Minute Market Insight" This is Robert Reierson - “BUY SMART” and “EAT MORE SEAFOOD”

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