EP 203 | AIRED 10/06/2014

The Seasonal Salmon Review: What We Thought vs What Actually Happened

October 6th, 2014 This week in the Tradex Foods 3-Minute Market Insight, Rob Reierson discusses The Seasonal Salmon Review: What We Thought vs What Actually Happened...

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This is Robert Reierson and here is the seafood news for Monday October 6th, 2014

--- Every Monday we bring you seafood news from a spectrum of species across the global markets.

We speak to our suppliers in Asia, Russia, and North America to bring you pricing trends and seasonal forecasts.

This episode we will focus on our accuracy and helpfulness for both consumers and buyers, in particular everyone's favourite topic: Salmon. Let's begin with Atlantic Salmon.

In March we expected supply to tighten for both fresh and frozen products of Atlantic Salmon.

Prices remained strong as predicted, and sales through Lent were smooth. We suggested that Norway was going to come online with large volumes of fish in July, translating to price decreases in September and October. However, no one could have predicted the trade sanctions imposed by Russia's Vladimir Putin.

We are hearing reports now that some of the Norwegian salmon is finding it's way into Russia through adjoining countries.

--- In June we reported that our sources in China were indicating a poor year ahead for Russian Pink salmon.

Buyers had hoped to see an abundant supply with lower price points near $1.04 and $1.29 /LB ex warehouse Kamchatka or Vladivastok.

However, in August there was pressure in Kamchatka as fishermen reported low catch volumes, likely due to the late start to the salmon fishing. Prices actually increased by about 20-30 percent in the domestic market.

We aim to inform you of market shifts like this immediately, in order for buyers to make informed decisions and stay ahead of the market.

--- A good example of keeping on top of the market was our insight on Chum salmon from Alaska in the past few months.

We told you that the summer chum run in Alaska was dismal and encouraged our viewers to purchase chum now.

Only 9.9 million chum salmon were caught this year in Alaska, representing only 50 percent of the projected 19.8 million fish from the Alaska Department of Fisheries and Game.

We had previously forecasted these shortages in June and anticipated high price points nearing $2.00 / LB FOB Seattle for 6-9 silverbrite chums. Currently, the market is $2.30 / LB for this product, 15 percent higher than we expected.

--- Finally, let's take a look at the species that stole all of the headlines this season: Sockeye salmon. We expected a large run of 1.8 million fish to return to the Fraser River for the Early summer Sockeye run.

In March we told you that rising water temperatures could be a factor in the Fraser run, predicted to be between 5 and 72 million fish by the Department of Fisheries and Ocean.

Water temperatures did rise and we did see a bit of a sluggish start to the season. However, the actual catch of 22 million fish was among the top five runs within the last 60 years. In Bristol Bay, Sockeye catches totalled 29 million fish, which was 61 percent high than the Alaska Department of Fish and Game's preseason forecasts of 17.9 million.

--- Overall, the Alaska total salmon harvest was 156.2 million fish - 15 percent above the Alaska Department of Fishery and Game's forecasts.

Bristol Bay harvests of all salmon was 30.9 million fish, with an ex-vessel value of $197 million USD.

Typically we see the average ex-vessel value in Bristol Bay at $110 million USD, this year was 79 percent above the 20 year average. It was a good year for fishermen, given the change in dock price and the higher volumes of fish. This year has been the 7th best year for salmon catch in Alaska in the last 20 years, despite the Chum only capturing half of it's forecasted volume.

--- We do our best to give you seasonal estimates and purchasing suggestions, but it was certainly a turbulent year for salmon, both domestically as well as globally. We hope you continue to tune in every week to find out what's going on in the seafood world.

As always, if you have any suggestions on topics that you'd like to hear on upcoming 3-Minute Market Insights, go to our website and let us know through our Web Chat feature, where you can get real-time answers from our team.

Finally, Tradex Foods has just launched TradexLIVE providing our customers with Seafood at their fingertips. 

TradexLIVE is an exclusive portal that features our latest offerings of H&G and Value Added seafood products updating Live and in Real-time. Ask your Tradex Foods Representative to sign you up today!


---Thanks for joining me for the Tradex Foods "3-Minute Market Insight" This is Rob Reierson - “BUY SMART” and “EAT MORE SEAFOOD”

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