April 16, 2018 - In this week's episode we will take a look at Salmon forecasts.
According to forecasts by the Alaskan Department of Fish and Game, only 100,000 King Salmon are forecasted for Alaska in 2018. This represents a 62 percent reduction from
the 2017 final harvests of 263 thousand fish.
--- Chum Salmon forecasts Year-to-year for Alaska show a 16 percent reduction, or 5 million pounds.
This equates to 20.9 million chum expected in 2018.
At a 7.7 pound fish weight average last year, the 4 million less chum expected this year will be about 25.6 million pounds less headed and gutted chum salmon in this year's market at a yield of 83 percent.
Based on this fact, we believe there will be another rise in chum pricing, which hinges also on labour disputes in Alaska regarding minimum wages and citizenship.
--- Pink salmon typically sees smaller runs on even-numbered years, which is why 72 million fewer pink salmon is expected in 2018 harvests compared to last year.
We have not seen offers on headed and gutted pink salmon from Alaska in several months, when ocean run IQF pinks were around $1.60/lb.
We anticipate headed and gutted pink salmon pricing to stay above the $1.60 mark in Seattle this season.
--- The only steady salmon numbers projected this season is for sockeye salmon, which is down only 3 percent year-to-year.
5.2 million sockeye salmon are forecasted for Alaska in 2018, after one of the biggest sockeye seasons last year in Bristol Bay.
The 2018 Bristol Bay Sockeye salmon outlook was published on Friday, showing a harvest of 37.59 million sockeye, which excludes escapement goals and the South Penninsula forecast.
This would represent 73 percent of the total forecast for the State.
The average sockeye size in 2017 was 5.4 pounds in the round, falling into the 4-6lb size headed and gutted.
Prices continued to be strong however, ranging from $4.05 to $4.50 per pound over the past few months.
With decent volumes of Sockeye expected in the Fraser River in BC based on every 4 year cycle, we could see the market push down slightly after the run in Canada.
--- To wrap this episode up, our TradexLIVE offer of the week is for SINBAD IQF Halibut Fletches.
We have 2,000 lbs of 8-16oz, twice frozen, deep skinned fletches available in Vancouver at $12.99/lb USD.
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