EP 413 | AIRED 11/19/2018

Predictions for the Upcoming Year In Seafood...

November 19, 2018 - Seafood buyers and processors met at the Qingdao Seafood Show from November 7th to 9th this year, bringing about predictions for the upcoming year. For Flounder, processors are saying raw material pricing will remain between $2200 and $2500 as Flounder will be short again, about 30 cents stronger on fillet pricing...

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In the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, and Gulf of Alaska, the predominant sole species like Flathead, Rock, and Yellowfin are NOT recovering fully.

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Harvest totals as of late October two years ago were 182 thousand metric tonnes for these 3 species.

2017 was a difficult year for Flounder fillet production as 12 percent less sole was harvested year-to-year, about 21 thousand metric tonnes or 46 million pounds.

Recovery to a skinless fillet on this shortage last year is about 12.5 million pounds fewer fillets in the market.

Alaskan Sole harvests are up only 2 percent so far in 2018, which correlates to the feedback from Chinese processors about fillet production limitations as well as consistently strong pricing.

--- Pacific Cod has had a tough year, with twice frozen loins jumping by $0.40/lb since the beginning of the year.

Chinese processors report that long line frozen at sea Russian Cod is between $3900 and $4200 now, down a few hundred dollars per metric tonne since early Fall.

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Production is fully booked until March and cash flow is too tight to purchase raw materials so buyers should expect Pacific Cod pricing to have some relief, but not until at least May.

SINBAD Pollock

--- Pollock was a big topic of discussion at the Qingdao show, with rumours of pricing dropping in December.

Again though, production is full until Chinese New Year and no raw materials are being purchased, so if fillet pricing does fall, we won't see it affect the North American market until May.

Buyers are advised ensure they have products secured for Lent and to expect new offers by mid-April for product leaving China after Chinese New Year.

--- And finally, Atlantic Cod is expected to be short, due to recent quota cut announcements.

It's unclear where twice frozen loin pricing will go, we feel it could be at a ceiling right now - a better picture will be known by late January.

--- Keep tuned to the 3-Minute Market Insight weekly as we reveal updates when more information and forecasts become available.

--- In conclusion, our TradexLIVE offer of the week is for Shatterpack 16-32oz skinless boneless Cod fillets.

We have 20,000 lbs of #1 quality, single frozen fillets available in Seattle at a very sharp price of $4.65/lb USD.

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