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3-Minute Market Insight

EP 474 | AIRED 02/03/2020

2020 Forecast & Predictions Part 2 - Expecting the unexpected: Price Trends for Haddock, Tilapia, and Salmon

February 3rd, 2020 --- In this week's episode we give you Part 2 of our 2020 seafood forecasts & predictions, for whitefish and salmon.

Right now, Haddock is seeing some of it's highest pricing in years, with raw materials in China as high as $3,750/MT USD (or $1.70/lb) and appears to be enjoying a healthy sales level.

SINBAD Pollock

Since the removal of the 25 percent tariff, and the onset of Chinese New Year, the industry is uncertain of the direction of Haddock pricing.
Our prediction is for Haddock raw materials pricing to rise, as it is a great product that is priced well in between pacific and atlantic cod.

We will see a clearer picture for what will happen with Haddock, as the workforce returns from Chinese New Year.

--- Flounder & Sole have seen increased fishing efforts since prior years, while still under tarrifs.

Total Alaskan Flounder catch was only 41 percent of the combined TAC at 39,000 MT, and all species of Alaskan Sole saw about 67 percent of it's TAC harvested with 175,000 MT.

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Our prediction is for Flounder & Sole pricing to increase throughout the year.

On the assumption that tariffs will be removed, boats have begun increasing raw material prices from where they currently sit at around $1850/MT (or $0.83/lb USD).

--- Moving onto Tilapia,

Tilapia pricing is dropping right now, sitting at around .78/lb on 300-500g out of Guangdong, China, and is still under tariff's like Flounder.

This is almost 30 cents cheaper than prices this time last year.

As the majority of Tilapia is farmed, it is susceptible to being affected by monsoon season in the spring, so no quotes will be made until at least 12 weeks into the year.

--- And finally, wrapping things up with Salmon.

Pacific Cod

Alaskan Sockeye pricing has peaked for the year, hovering around $4.25-$4.65 USD for 4-6lb, and $3.25-$3.45/lb USD on 2-4lb.

Currently, there is an excess of inventory from 2019, pricing in Houang is around $3.65 and we're seeing some spot buys for around $3.45.

Our prediction is for the demand for Sockeye may decrease forcing a drop in price.

The Alaska Department of Fish & Game's Salmon projections typically are not released until around March, however the industry is forecasting for a big run in 2020, for an even year.

--- The Pink Salmon market is heavily reliant on numbers coming from Russia, however industry experts we talked to, are not expecting as big of a run in 2020. With such an abundant 2019 season, and loads of inventories in storage, our prediction is for Russian Pink prices to drop.

--- King Salmon exist in it's own market, it is expected to retain higher pricing due to scarce numbers and is leaning more towards becoming a novelty purchase.

SINBAD Gold Chum Salmon
--- Alaskan Chum prices started high in 2019, which was unusual for the market, especially to experienced buyers, who should watch comparisons with farmed pricing. We predict that if Atlantic Salmon drops, it will put more downward pressure on chums. Our Salmon experts predict resistance on pricing for Chums in 2020.

If you're looking for options on Chums, consider looking into our SINBAD Gold Chum fillets & portions, they are chem free, IVP and great quality.

--- This concludes of our 2020 forecasts & predictions series.

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